Thursday, 14 May 2015

Kenyan Engineers Advancing Technical Sophistication of Al-Shabaab’s IEDS as Amniyaat Activates Istishhadi Elements in Kenya

Al-Shabaab has vowed to conduct a series of “earth-shaking” and “devastating” terrorist attacks in Kenya very soon. The vows were made by the Emir of al-Shabaab, Ahmad Umar (alias Abu Ubaidah); Chief of Amniyaat, Mahad Karate; and the Emir of Al-Muhajiroun (Emigrants of East Africa), Sheikh Izzedeen al Tanzani. The pledges were made as al-Shabaab adopted a policy of calculated neutrality with regards to both Al-Qaeda and ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria). At the moment, al-Shabaab is firmly within the al-Qaeda fold but it has established operational networks with ISIS-affiliated terror groups across Africa, the Middle East, South-East Asia and Europe.
Kenyan Engineers Develop Better and More Powerful IEDs.
Al-Qaeda affiliated Kenyan engineers currently working for al-Shabaab have for the first time been able to build a vehicle-bound IED (Improvised Explosive Device) that can evade detection by Kenyan security services and routine vehicle inspection. Moreover, they are presently perfecting methods for attaching magnetic bombs onto targets while on the move. Additionally, they have developed more-powerful explosives from an amalgamation of composite incendiaries.
Synchronized and Simultaneous Sophisticated Attacks.
Al-Shabaab (in this instance operating under the auspices of AQEA [Al-Qaeda in East Africa]) has developed a complex and relatively sophisticated attack plan that incorporates elements of SVBIED (Suicide Vehicle-Bound IED), ambushes, hostage-sieges, drive-by shootings and individual suicide bombers. AQEA is the designation normally used by Takfiri jihadists when they conduct joint operations in East Africa – in this case, AlQaeda central has provided critical resources for the operation while al-Shabaab, al-Hijra, and al-Muhajiroun (Emigrants of East Africa) would conduct the terror operations.
Logo of Al-Muhajiroun.
Moreover, there are clear indications that the coming terror campaign will be persistent, and that most of the attacks would be synchronized to occur simultaneously across different towns and cities in Kenya. Abdikadir Mohammed Abdikadir (alias Ikrima) has been tasked with overseeing and guiding the terror operations in Nairobi.
Intelligence Sightlessness.
Terror operatives in Kenya have adopted new operational security measures including self-imposed social media blackout and use of encrypted communication channels. Nonetheless, official terror outlets have been particularly brazen in their warnings directed to their targets including the Kenyan Government, Kenyan citizens, the United Nations, the United States, Uganda and Tanzania. Chatter within the terror underground indicate that Amniyaat (the intelligence and counter-intelligence arm of al-Shabaab) has been able to neutralize a significant number of spies and double agents within Al-Shabaab thereby lessening the possibility of their specific plans being exposed or their agents being intercepted. Since the Garissa University Attack, al-Shabaab has not suffered even a single drone strike – largely credited to Amniyaat counter-intelligence activities which have foiled several espionage missions within al-Shabaab held territories.
Al-Muhajiroun has been particularly brazen with regards to counter-intelligence with its operatives attesting that neither Mossad nor MI6 (and to some extent the CIA) would be able to crack their terror cells or intercept their communications. There is an element of truth in this statement as all the intelligence agencies currently active in Kenya are operating on the basis of probability rather than specific intelligence.
Activation of Istishhadi Elements.

Amniyaat has activated elements of al-Shabaab Istishhadi cells that were dormant in Kenya. This comes at a time when jihadi elements in Mombasa are calling for devastating attacks. Fear that jihadi elements in Mombasa may conduct terror attacks unilaterally drove al-Muhajiroun to appeal to jihadists in the region to exercise patience as final preparations for a series of attacks were being made. On noon, 14th May 2015, al-Muhajiroun warned that their patience with Kenya had run out thereby signalling an eminent terror attack in Kenya.

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