Sunday, 14 June 2015

Al-Shabaab’s Ramadhan Offensive - Altering the Course of Jihad in East Africa

Al-Shabaab aims to create a crisis of confidence in the counter-terrorism policies and practices of East African governments (along with those of allied Western governments); as well as deal a psychological blow to the troop contributing nations by inflicting an unprecedented casualty count on the troops and citizens of these nations.
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With Somalia entering into a new phase of its protracted war against al-Shabaab; al-Qaeda military strategists and doctrinal theorists have crafted an innovative strategy that envisages al-Shabaab changing the course of its jihad in the Horn of Africa region; as well as altering the military and political dynamics of the war against Islamism in the wider East African region. Al-Shabaab is presently marshalling its available combat forces - while also retaining a very limited reserve - for an all-out major offensive across Somalia and Kenya’s Coastal and North-Eastern regions. The East African nations of Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia are also likely to suffer terror attacks within their territories.